We have ourselves a front-of-the-rotation arm
Tanner Bibee cemented his place as the Guardians’ best starting pitcher in 2024, taking over for the injured Shane Bieber and ineffective Triston McKenzie.
Bibee followed up an excellent rookie season (2.98 ERA and 3.52 FIP) with a strong sophomore showing, putting up 3.3 fWAR, a 3.47 ERA, a 3.56 FIP, and 9.69/2.28 K/BB/9. Looking at FIP, Bibee was about the same pitcher as he was in his debut year, but it’s worth looking at what happened to increase, instead of decrease, his ERA. Primarily, Bibee’s fastball was much worse; in 2023 it was +6.5 runs above average and in 2024 it was -8.5 runs below average. The four seamer looked similar in shape and spin, but it lost around a little vertical break, and about .03 mph in average speed. Bibee raised his release point about 15%, so it might be good to take a look at that and how it affected his fastball. Mostly, Bibee struggled to command his fastball and when you’re averaging only 95 mph, you can’t really afford to struggle with command without getting tagged now and then.
The good news is that Bibee still had one the league’s best sliders. Among MLB pitchers who threw 90 or more innings, Bibee had the fifth best slider at 13.8 runs above average. His changeup was also above average, and, with those two weapons, he found a way to give the Guardians a chance to win consistently.
In the playoffs, Bibee was essentially the same pitcher with a 3.45 ERA. He had a 2.08 ERA in 2 starts against Detroit, and allowed only two runs in five and two-thirds innings in an elimination game against Detroit. What’s that, you say? I can’t just ignore bad performances because I want to? Ok, welll, game two of the ALCS was a very bad game for Bibee for whatever reason, as he loaded the bases and was lifted in the second inning, ending up surrendering five runs (three earned). But, other than that, this is what a front of the rotation horse looks like, folks!
What can Bibee do to improve on 2024? Well, he needs to fix the fastball and figure out how to locate it more effectively. That’s about it. Part of that effort may involved reducing the amount of fastballs he throws, allocating those percentages toward more sliders, more curveballs and more changeups. Maybe the lingering shoulder issue that kept him out can be solved with rest, which may allow for better fastball command.
There is a lot of debate about what an ace is. Some people say it’s Bob Gibson and Randy Johnson. I think an ace is someone you feel comfortable handing the ball in game one of a playoff series, and that’s Bibee. If you want to call him a frontline starter instead, that’s fine with me. But, let’s appreciate how he has stepped up with like Bieber sidelined.
Bibee would like to have ONE pitch back from 2024. The Guardians clearly asked him to work around Giancarlo Stanton with a runner on, and Bibee didn’t throw him a strike until the final 3-2 pitch and it was a slider that hung and ended up in the seats, tying the game for the Yankees. It’s a moment to learn from, and I know one was more disappointed in that pitch than Tanner was. Perhaps Vogt learns “When in doubt, walk the other team’s best hitter if you have a base for them and your playoff futre is on the line.”
But, that’s one pitch among thousands that confused opponents and kept the Guardians in games and away from their excessive bullpen use. I enjoyed watching Bibee stabilize the Guardians’ rotation in 2024 and hope he takes a further step forward in 2025.
Here are some Tanner Bibee highlights from 2024: