Among a number of trades this MLB offseason, one that flew a bit under the radar was the Cleveland Guardians acquiring starter Luis Ortiz from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ortiz took a step forward in 2024 posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.113 WHIP across 135 2/3 innings. During his time as a starter from 2022 to 2023, he was the worst pitcher in all of baseball in K-BB%, one of the most predictive metrics for pitcher success, out of more than 300 pitchers (minimum 70 innings).
After struggling with control issues prior to this season, he managed to get his walk rate to a league-average level. That specific improvement made him a much more interesting and realistic option as a starter. Ortiz has always had intriguing stuff from his scouting reports. Boasting a 60-grade fastball and 70-grade slider, his potential was tantalizing if he could have average command.
How Guardians Can Optimize New Starter Luis Ortiz
Pitch Mix Tweaks
Luis Ortiz throws all his pitches from a uniquely low release point of about 5 feet along with 79th percentile extension. After hardly throwing his cutter in his first two seasons, Ortiz inserted it as a valuable strike-throwing option, using it roughly 20% of the time. The 25-year-old pitcher’s mix was satisfyingly distributed pretty evenly amongst all his pitches. Here is how his pitch mix looked in 2024:
| Slider | 26.8% |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 26.8% |
| Sinker | 25.8% |
| Cutter | 19.7% |
| Changeup | 0.9% |
In previous years, Ortiz used the changeup as his fourth pitch. In 2024, he scrapped his changeup in exchange for the cutter and the results were mostly positive. Let’s look into each individual pitch.
Slider
Ortiz’s best pitch by Stuff+ is his slider, which grades out well at a 121. Averaging 85.8 MPH, it comes with 2.1 inches of induced vertical break and -6.6 inches of horizontal break. It generated a good amount of chase outside the zone (32.6%) and was effective in preventing damaging contact, allowing just a .274 xwOBA. However, it was a below-average pitch in terms of generating swing and miss. Among a group of pitchers who threw at least 500 sliders in 2024, the average swinging strike rate was 17.7%.
Despite some of these positive indicators, it was a negative pitch for Ortiz by run value. The shape and velocity on the pitch look strong, but it has not yet manifested into a substantial amount of swing and miss.
Luis Ortiz’s 2Ks in the 3rd. pic.twitter.com/xkHDwa9tNg
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 31, 2024
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Four-Seam Fastball
Another well-regarded pitch from Ortiz’s prospect reports is his fastball. However, its physical characteristics are not viewed as favorably by Stuff+ models, with it being around average at 97. With his extremely low release point, a lower induced vertical break number is expected. Ortiz throws his fastball at an average of 95.9 MPH (top 15 among starters) with 11.3 inches of induced vertical break and 11.4 inches of horizontal break.
A dead-zone fastball typically has movement characteristics of around 14 inches for both vertical and horizontal. So, the right-hander’s fastball is not quite in that mold. But hitters have not had issues squaring this pitch up. In fact, it was one of the ten worst fastballs by run value in the 2023 season. This past season, Ortiz drastically improved the results on his fastball, as it proved to be one of his most effective pitches. Ortiz’s fastball command took a huge step forward in 2024 and can be illustrated well in his year-year Location+ numbers on his fastball (scaled to where 100 is average):
| 2022 | 92 |
| 2023 | 96 |
| 2024 | 104 |
Living in the 92-96 range is where you will find most relievers, so Ortiz finding a way to stay around average will be critical moving forward.
Sinker
Complimenting his slider, Ortiz throws a sinker as well, averaging 94.9 MPH. It comes with 3.2 inches of induced vertical break and 15.7 inches of arm-side run, giving it an above-average Stuff+ of 97. Like most sinkers, it produced very little swing and miss (6.2% swinging strike rate) and lots of ground balls (59.1%). However, it was also his hardest-hit pitch, allowing a .376 xwOBA.
While Ortiz did not flood the strike zone with his sinker, its Location+ also made a big jump going from 92 to 97 this year. It is important to note in regard to some of his improvements from a command perspective that Location+ is not as predictive year-to-year as Stuff+. So it remains to be seen what his command will look like going forward.
Cutter
The new addition to the arsenal may have proved to be the difference for Luis Ortiz. His cutter was thrown at 91 MPH with 7.4 inches of induced vertical break and -0.6 inches of glove-side movement. The most important statistic on the cutter for Ortiz was his Strike%. The cutter was his only pitch above 50%, so it was invaluable as a strike-throwing offering.
While it did not generate a high amount of whiffs and teams hit for a .273 average off of it, it tied for his most effective pitch by run value. So, while it rates as below average by Stuff+ at 90, throwing lower stuff pitches can help bridge together some gaps in certain pitchers’ profiles. In the case of Ortiz, he controlled this pitch better than his other offerings and complimented them well.
Outlook for 2025
The Cleveland Guardians rotation in the 2024 season was a bit of an adventure, to say the least. Their rotation ate innings at a bottom-five level and was among the worst in baseball by a number of metrics. Ortiz should step into a rotation spot immediately and be relied upon every fifth day. It is an ideal landing spot for a young pitcher with a great slider like Ortiz. Time and time again, we have seen what kind of value the Guardians’ pitching factory can squeeze out of pitchers with an excellent breaking ball, including guys like Tanner Bibee and Shane Bieber.
Ortiz has the pedigree and now the situation to potentially be unlocked. Wielding multiple fastballs and a great breaking ball with around league-average command is an intriguing starter package. It is also important to note his elevated peripherals with a 4.25 FIP and 4.59 xFIP, as there are still holes. But Ortiz’s value is ascending and he will look to build on his success in 2025.
Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images
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