What is shaping up to be an eventful off-season for our Cleveland Guardians continued on Saturday as they made a trade. The Guardians have sent All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks and in exchange are receiving right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance pick in the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft.
Over the course of the last three seasons, Naylor had established himself as one of the most productive hitters on the Guardians roster, often playing first base and hitting in the clean-up spot behind Jose Ramirez. He averaged 29 doubles, 23 home runs and 95 RBI over the course of those last three years, culminating in a .267/.330/.465 slash-line and 121 wRC+ over the same time frame. These numbers would make him the third most productive Guardian hitter over these seasons (minimum 500 plate appearances) behind Ramirez and David Fry (by wRC+).
However, Naylor’s 2025 will be his last under team control as he is scheduled to hit the open free-agent market after the upcoming season. Rumors had begun to abound over the current off-season about him possibly being traded. Those rumors returned this week, though interestingly, the related reporting had been tied to interest from the Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants more than the Diamondbacks.
Without a contract extension in the offing, the Guardians were in a position to either use Naylor’s talents one final time in his walk year in an effort to repeat or improve on their 2024 American League Championship Series appearance or trade him and lose the security of his production but try to improve the team in other ways. The Guardians’ front office has decided to go with the latter.
This choice has resulted in the Guardians receiving young and unproven talent, which is far from a sure thing. If Guardians’ fans are upset with the team for now dealing a second known commodity from their roster over the course of just a couple of weeks (the first being second baseman Andres Gimenez), that is understandable.
Alternatively, while Naylor will be only 28 in 2025, he does have a history of weight issues and did have a severe ankle injury that cut short his 2021 season. Each subsequent year has required care to make sure his knees and ankles are in decent working order. 2024 is the only year of his career where he has played more than 122 Major League games. I would not blame the Guardians brass for not being interested in an extension as I don’t perceive Naylor as being someone who is certain to successfully stay healthy moving forward.
That brings us back to the decision to either let Naylor play out his contract so that he may contribute to 2025’s success or to trade him to make sure something is gained from his departure. Interestingly, the move to trade Naylor may have been made easier due to an old friend.
Along with trading Naylor, the Guardians also have signed first baseman Carlos Santana to a one-year, $12 million contract.
This will be Santana’s third tour of duty with the Guardians, having started with the team as a rookie in 2010, playing with the then Indians through 2017, then returning for the 2019 and 2020 seasons after a one-year stay in Philadelphia. He actually leads in most offensive counting stats including home runs and RBI collected by Cleveland players between 2010 and 2020. He posted 34 home runs twice during his time with the team, led the league in walks twice and was an above average offensive producer in all but his final season with Cleveland.
Santana has played for five different teams in the last three years, having signed three 1-year contracts and having been traded at the trade deadline in two of the last three years. He likely looks forward to returning to a familiar organization with which he has a strong relationship and hopes to compete for the playoffs in one city for the entirety of the season.
On the diamond, Santana had a fairly strong 2024. He slashed .238/.328/.420 with 26 doubles and 23 home runs in 150 games for the Minnesota Twins. A switch hitter, he has been particularly strong from the right side of the plate. His OPS combined over the last three seasons is .848 against left-handed pitching. His glove work at first base was strong enough to be named the oldest player to ever win his first Gold Glove Award as he won the AL Gold Glove at first base in 2024. Additionally, despite reaching his late 30s, he has played in 146 games or more in the last two seasons.
Santana will be 39 in 2025 and although he has remained a slightly above-average hitter into this later stage of his career, it is fair to say that he is not immediately a better hitter than Naylor. However, he could still be a solid contributor and is likely to mix in with fellow first baseman Kyle Manzardo. I would expect them to platoon at first base early in the season while also having additional games with both of them in the lineup with one of them being inserted as the designated hitter.
For those possibly thinking that trading Naylor and replacing him with Santana was a matter of pinching pennies, that is likely not the case. MLBTradeRumors.com tries to estimate each year what each eligible player will make in arbitration. They don’t always nail the figure to the last dollar, but they are usually pretty close. They estimate Naylor’s 2025 salary to be $12 million, the exact same figure that Santana will make as a Guardian this year. Presumably, the Guardians have taken the money earmarked for Naylor and made the conscious decision to give it to Carlos Santana instead. I can only imagine that they think that Santana will bring the team more value overall.
Santana being an excellent clubhouse chemistry guy may have been a factor in this move and line of thinking. I have not seen anything specifically reported, but I personally have the perception that the relationship between the Guardians and Josh Naylor has soured over the last couple of years.
At the 2023 trade deadline, the Guardians notably sold. They specifically traded starting pitcher Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays for Manzardo. Being just two games out of the AL Central lead at the time, there was word reported that the players were frustrated with the front office’s decision. There was apparently enough angst that Team President Chris Antonetti flew to Dallas to talk to the team as they were in town playing the Rangers. He wanted to give a chance to clear the air. Interestingly, Naylor went on the Injured List that same very day with a strained oblique.
The following is 100% pure speculation by me.
I believe that Naylor was offended by the fact that the Guardians not only decided to not push to improve the roster for the stretch run but they essentially made a trade for his replacement. I have seen rumors that the reason that Manzardo, a much leaner and more mobile player than Naylor, did not play first base last season is because Naylor refused to DH and give up his spot (I want to emphasize, that these are unsubstantiated rumors at this time). My perception is that if there had been any conversations about a contract extension between the Guardians and Naylor, they had ceased by the point of the Civale-Manzardo trade and the team felt the need to plan for the future. Naylor didn’t like that. Additionally, I don’t entirely know why, but I don’t think it is a coincidence that Naylor ended up on the IL on this same day.
What I do know for certain is that Guardians writer Zack Miesel recently said that Naylor’s attitude in the clubhouse had noticeably shifted this year. Naylor was much more quiet and wouldn’t really talk to the media. This is the same player often seen as being exuberant in the dugout or headbutting Terry Francona following his clutch home runs. Instead, Naylor came off as distant this past year. It makes me think that both sides were ready to part ways.
Whether or not a combination of Santana, Manzardo, an eventually healthy David Fry and perhaps Jhonkensy Noel can cobble together Naylor-like production at first base is yet to be seen. With the right platoon splits, they could get close and a combination of improved defense and better chemistry could make the rest of the difference.
Admittedly, that’s a lot of “coulds”. But if anything, my disappointment in this trade comes not from the Guardians’ immediate plan to replace Naylor but from the return they received in sending him away. Arizona had lost their most recent first baseman, Christian Walker, to free agency and had a significant need. As I mentioned before, at least Seattle and San Francisco were also interested. Somehow, Naylor’s offensive production was only valuable enough to land a single pitcher with a questionable ability to pitch at the highest level plus (more on this in a moment) what equates to a third-round draft pick.
Conversely, though, the Chicago Cubs were also only able to get a single 30-year-old, swing-man pitcher with a questionable MLB future (by the name of Cody Poteet) when they recently traded Cody Bellinger. Though Bellinger’s peak (a former NL MVP) is much higher than Naylor’s (as is Bellinger’s salary, to be fair), they profile as similarly productive and similarly available over the course of the last three seasons.
As for Cecconi, he is a right-handed pitcher who is a former first-round pick, albeit from the very odd 2020 draft where he was selected 33rd overall. He ranked as high as 6th on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Diamondbacks (in 2021). While he has thrown 104 Major League innings over the last two seasons, Cecconi is still a rookie due to a lack of service time.
He has struggled in his limited time in the bigs, pitching to a 6.06 ERA in his career, pitching both as a starter and a reliever. He did post a much more positive 3.06 ERA in his time with AAA Reno last year, although most of his outings came in relief. It is yet to be seen how the Guardians aim to utilize him. They have traded away some of their bullpen depth this off-season and that could use back-filling, but they also have made a conscious attempt to improve their starting rotation this off-season.
Cecconi features the traditional four pitches: a four-seam fastball (averaging 94 mph), slider, change-up and curveball. His best quality is that he absolutely pounds the strike zone, something that the Guardians tend to value. However, he has been highly susceptible to the long ball, suggesting that while he throws strikes they haven’t always been quality ones.
A move to Cleveland with its highly reputable pitching development system will afford Cecconi the opportunity to make the most of his talents. At this time though, I think it is more likely he will start the 2025 season in AAA and provide depth for both the starting rotation and bullpen as the season progresses.
The Guardians also receive a competitive balance pick in the trade. Due to the intricate machinations of the draft, we do not know quite yet what spot the Guardians will be selecting in, but it will probably be in the 65th to 75th overall range. While most regular draft picks are not eligible to be traded, competitive balance picks that are awarded based on team revenue and market size may be dealt and in this case, Cleveland is reaping the benefits of Arizona wanting to sweeten the deal for Naylor.
In summation, despite my negative speculation about Josh Naylor, he had been an instrumental member to the Guardians’ success, particularly in the 2022 and 2024 playoff seasons. His power and protection behind Ramirez were imperative and Cleveland has the potential to find itself challenged in filling the clean-up spot with his departure.
Naylor will be remembered as a Guardian for his boisterous leadership in the earlier years of his tenure, along with his ability to provide prodigious power, especially in a big moment. He was the catalyst for the team’s miraculous 2022 comeback in Chicago against the White Sox that saw him hit two home runs and a double all in the 8th inning or later of the same game. He famously homered off of and then taunted Yankees ace Gerrit Cole during the 2022 ALDS. He also would especially terrorize the Angels and Athletics by clubbing key, late home runs in games within the same series. In the field, he could steal away outs by doing the splits more deeply than any first baseman I have ever seen.
Josh Naylor was a really good Cleveland Guardian, it is disappointing to see him go, but there is a high probability that this is the right move at the right time. Unfortunately, sometimes modern baseball is clinical like that.
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