It’s early now. When will it be late?
It’s been a mildly disappointing start for the Cleveland Guardians in 2025, which leaves fans looking for players to blame. Which players may find their seats on the major league roster getting hot as the season progresses?
Gabriel Arias, IF – Seat Temperature: Room Temperature
In 600 plate appearances, Arias now has a 75 wRC+ for his career. HOWEVER, so far this season he has a 93 wRC+ and has increased his walk rate by 5%. BUT, he also has a 71.5% groundball rate and a 65% in-zone contact rate, indicating that both of these improvements are unlikely to be sustained. I would be pretty surprised if Arias finds his way off the major league roster this season given his defensive versatility and the lack of available players who can play shortstop at the major league level in the system. But, I do think Arias’s seat as the starting second baseman is warming. The team wants Juan Brito on the roster and Brito has had a good start to the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brito on the roster to start at second in the beginning of May, with Arias moved to a bench role. It’ll happen by Memorial Day if both players’ current trajectories continue.
Daniel Schneemann, IF/OF – Seat Temperature: Pleasantly Heated
The Guardians seem to like Daniel Schneemann a lot better than I do. I think Schneemann’s spot on the roster is directly related to the performance of Brito and Angel Martinez in Columbus. If Brito wins the second base job, Arias can easily move into Schneemann’s role backing up shortstop, and Martinez then can take Schneemann’s jack-of-all-trades role (minus the shortstop backup piece). Schnee has a 20% walk-rate which is keeping him from being unplayable due to his 40% strikeout rate. He has a great eye at the plate; he just doesn’t have the skills to do damage with the pitches he recognizes as hittable consistently. I expect Schneemann to be demoted to the minors sometime this year, but, as I said, it will depend on the development of folks like Brito and Martinez… as well as the health of players currently on the roster. For example, if Lane Thomas’s wrist requires an IL stint, Schneemann will now likely become the starting centerfielder. Which… gulp.
Nolan Jones, OF – Seat Temperature: Cold
Unless Chase DeLauter or George Valera get healthy and go nuclear at Columbus, Jones will get the lion’s share of at-bats in right field. His numbers don’t reflect it yet (42 wRC+ and a .218 xwOBA), but I do see him hitting balls hard and putting up good at-bats. I think the Guardians are committed to letting him figure it out which is why they made the late Spring Training trade and pulled the rug out from under Will Brennan. I don’t think any of us can or should count on DeLauter or Valera health, so get ready for more NoJo.
Jhonkensy Noel, OF – Seat Temperature: Warm to the Touch
I think Noel’s spot is safe until David Fry is healthy. At that point, if Noel can’t make consistent contact, I could see a world where Brito, or Arias, or Rodriguez get at-bats for Jhonk in the right-field platoon roles, depending on what other players are doing. Or, potentially Thomas moves to right and Martinez wins some centerfield reps. But, I suspect Noel will get a clean run at figuring things out until at least late June, unless he completely falls off a cliff. Noel has only a 15% strikeout rate right now, and his in-zone contact is around 80%. I suspect he’ll figure out how to lift the ball again, as he’s done consistently in the minors, and find a way to be a good platoon options against lefties. But, it’s no sure thing and his place on the roster is by no means secure.
Johnathan Rodriguez, OF – Hot
I could see Rodriguez getting demoted today if Thomas’s wrist is hurt but not hurt enough for an IL stint. In that case, Martinez would get promoted and I doubt that they’d swap Rodriguez back when Thomas is healthy. It’s tough for players like Johnny Rockets trying to make it as a big leaguer in limited AB’s. But, most players are not going to be handed starting jobs. You have to find a way to take advantage of the plate appearances you get, and Rodriguez has failed to do that so far.
Triston McKenzie, RHP – Hot
I’m sure there are folks who will disagree with me here, but I suspect McKenzie will get DFA’d when Andrew Walters is ready and healthy to join the roster. McKenzie has an incredibly hittable fastball when he can’t control his curveball, and he hasn’t been abe to control his curveball for like two straight years. I think the Guardians will try to sneak him through waivers and give him a chance for things to magically click in Columbus, and I’m not sure even a team like the White Sox or the Marlins are gonna claim him at this point. This is sad; I love Dr. Sticks and always will.
Joey Cantillo, LHP – Steadily Warm
Whenever Erik Sabrowski can get healthy, potentially even whenever Doug Nikhazy looks ready, Cantillo will be demoted to Columbus. I have some hope Cantillo can figure things out in a relief role, but the man was throwing an 86 mph fastball the other day. I think there are some things wrong here that are probably best worked out in Triple-A. Unfortunately, there’s no one ready to take the second lefty role at the moment.
Paul Sewald, RHP – Cold Until July
Sewald has a 7.67 xERA currently. The man gives up a LOT of hard contact. HOWEVER, he hasn’t walked a single batter and has struck out 10 batters per nine. Thus, he has only a 3.89 SIERA. Folks, you need to strap in for the Bryan Shaw/Scott Barlow experience Sewald provides because he’s in the Vogt Circle of Trust and things are gonna have to go way off the rails and some guys like Franco Aleman, Nic Enright and Luis Frias are gonna have to really pop for the Guardians to move on from Sewald and I can’t see anyway it reasonably happens until late July. Personally, I think Sewald is better than late-career Bryan Shaw and 2024 Scott Barlow, so I’m fine with him being here. Just know he’s going to give up some very unfortunate homers in between making good hitters look occasionally silly with a 91 mph fastball.
Logan Allen, LHP – Scheduled To Turn Warm in May
When Bieber is ready to pitch in the majors, Logan Allen will return to Columbus or head to the bullpen. If Doug Nikhazy or Parker Messick dominate Triple-A through Mother’s Day, they will get a chance to perform in the bigs for Logan Allen before Bieber returns. If Vince Velazquez begins to show he’s rediscovered who he was with the Pirates before he got Tommy John, the team will add him to the roster and demote Allen. The only reason Allen is in the rotation is that the team cannot trust McKenzie or Cantillo to not walk the entire lineup when they put them in the game.
Brayan Rocchio, SS – Ice Cold
Rocchio has a 75 wRC+ through 560 plate appearances, so similar to Arias in many ways. HOWEVER, Rocchio has a .313 xwOBA so far in 2025 and only a .217 BABIP. I don’t think we have enough evidence to say if his playoff advances were a complete mirage yet. I suspect we will see Rocchio as the Guardians’ starting shortstop through the entire 2025 season, UNLESS Arias really breaks-out (I don’t find that at all likely) as Brito is called up. Rocchio is a year younger than Arias and will get almost the season to succeed or fail. The only caveat to this is that IF Rocchio is still hanging around the 70 wRC+ range and still making some head-scratching mistakes in the field, I could see the Guardians – if they are in contention – pursuing a short-term solution at shortstop in the trade deadline, but there are few options out there. Don’t look at his hitting stats so far, but Kevin Newman from the Angels is the only option that comes immediately to mind, unless the team wants to resume the Amed Rosario experience. Neither will get anyone excited, so brace yourself for a growing pains year for Rocchio. And pray that Angel Genao gets healthy and starts destroying the minor leagues.
Luis Ortiz, RHP – Lukewarm
Ortiz had an encouraging last outing against the Angels, but it’s not hard to see he is fighting to get a consistent release point and keep his pitches in the strike zone. Ortiz is going to get a long leash to figure things out in Cleveland, and I think his place on the roster will only be revisited when/if Slade Cecconi gets healthy and shows progress in Columbus AND when/if Bieber is healthy and ready to return. Of course, breakouts from the aforementioned Messick, Nikhazy, or, heck, Austin Peterson or Tommy Mace could change the team’s plans in a variety of ways, so I’m putting Ortiz’s seat temperature as lukewarm. But, I expect him to figure out how to limit walks and maintain his place in the rotation.
Bo Naylor, C – Cold but with an Ignition Switch Able to Be Flipped
I love Bo and believe in Bo. But, there is potential for the team to move on from Bo. It involves either Kody Huff or Cooper Ingle going insane in the minor leagues, Bo failing to make any kind of consistent contact and failing to control the run game and making little improvement as a pitch-caller. If all of those factors take place, I do not believe the team is convinced that Naylor is their catcher of the future and they’d give a breaking out Huff or Ingle a chance to work with Hedges and Bo (who has two options remaining) a chance to figure things out in Columbus. Neither Huff (60 wRC+) nor Ingle (82 wRC+) has had a good start to the year so far, so none of this is likely, and we all need to hope Bo figures things out.
As usual, I want to issue a reminder that you can’t really say much about a baseball team or a baseball player in a given season until Memorial Day. But, there is no doubt that there are reasons to doubt every player on this list based on significant data from past major league seasons and/or their minor league track records. While we hope each finds a way to achieve big league success, we’ll also keep our eye on the minor leagues for players who can apply pressure to each to improve or find their way off the active roster.