Kyle Manzardo of the Cleveland Guardians has enjoyed a strong finish to his otherwise up-and-down rookie campaign. He ended the final month of the regular season with a 147 wRC+, which was good for second-best among Cleveland hitters behind the great José Ramírez. Cleveland’s offense is built around a contact-driven approach with emphasis on speed, similar to previous seasons. However, a key difference has been the collective increase in power. After finishing the 2023 season last in home runs by a significant margin, the Guardians have soared up to the 12th most this regular season. Although Manzardo was not a big part of that increase for most of the year, he could be finding his stride just in time for the postseason.
Kyle Manzardo Adds Extra Element to Guardians Offense
Adjustment Period
Manzardo finished his rookie season as a roughly league-average hitter with a 98 wRC+. Being 24 years old, he was viewed as a more polished prospect who could come up immediately and produce at an above-average level, according to his projections. For the majority of the season, it was a real struggle for Manzardo. He posted a poor 59 wRC+ as he was optioned and recalled multiple times until his red-hot September. An important element of Manzardo’s profile was not transferring to the big leagues. His elite strikeout-to-walk numbers combined with above-average power in the minor leagues were not put on display. Walking just 3.4% of the time, Manzardo was also not compensating for it with making contact or hitting for power.
The plate discipline metrics from the minor leagues for Manzardo vary greatly from what we have seen in the majors. Across the board, he has displayed a more aggressive approach. Manzardo spent the majority of the last two seasons at the Triple-A level. Furthermore, the gap between major league pitching and Triple-A pitching has never been wider. Rookie hitters take time to adjust to the quality of stuff and more nuanced game plans they face in the big leagues. This applies to Manzardo, as he is swinging more than ever while making less contact than ever. While Manzardo does not project to have exceptional power, he still possesses a unique skillset relative to the rest of the Cleveland Guardians’ lineup. Even during the prolonged slump, he showed flashes of his power potential with a solid 8.3% barrel rate.
Kyle Manzardo destroys a go-ahead homer in the 8th ? pic.twitter.com/ii4XUElIPd
— MLB (@MLB) September 17, 2024
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Incremental Improvements
In the month of September, Manzardo started to creep back to his minor-league marks of discipline. While it is still not all the way there, he was slightly more selective and brought his walk rate back to an above-average mark of 8.7% in the process. The strikeout rate did not improve, but his quality of contact looked very promising. It should be noted that he has been protected against left-handed pitching for essentially the whole season and will likely continue. Manzardo provides an ideal blend of power, patience, and contact ability in the Guardians lineup that few others bring to the table. Here are some of his notable improvements from early in the season to September:
| May-September | September | |
| BB% | 3.4% | 8.7% |
| SLG% | .329 | .540 |
| xwOBA | .232 | .333 |
| O-Swing% | 32.1% | 30.3% |
| Z-Swing% | 66.7% | 64.3% |
Overall, the Guardians lineup takes walks at a bottom 10 rate in the league. Manzardo’s ability to refind the disciplined approach he displayed in the minor leagues will be important.
Is the Guardians’ Increase in Power Sustainable?
The bulk of the power responsibility in the Cleveland Guardians’ lineup has laid on the shoulders of José Ramírez and Josh Naylor, with each of them exceeding the 30-homer mark. Factor in a surprise uptick from Steven Kwan, out-of-nowhere production from David Fry, and other young guys stepping up, and we can see how they ultimately attain a top-12 finish in home runs. With Cleveland finishing last in home runs last season, their barrel rate was predictably a league-low 5.1%. Barrel rate is important to look at regarding power production, as it correlates best for power metrics. Despite the significant increase in home runs this season, the Guardians still held the second-worst barrel rate in baseball at 5.8%. What changes were made to squeeze the most power out of this lineup? Pulled fly balls.
Last season, Cleveland was second to last in pulled fly balls. This season, they have vaulted up to produce the second most. With a lineup consisting mostly of players with average raw power, pulling the ball in the air is the best way to access their game power. In addition, there has been a massive swing in their home ballpark’s run environment. In 2023, Progressive Field was the worst major league ballpark for home run production. This season, it has rocketed up to the 13th friendliest park for home runs. Specifically, the changes made in Cleveland boosted left-handed power production. The renovations to the park created a wind tunnel-like effect out to right field. So, the combination of a drastic flip in the home ballpark’s run environment and a philosophical shift to pull more balls in the air led to this optimal outcome.
Outlook for the Postseason
The Guardians, along with many other contending teams, played roughly .500 baseball over the second half of the season. After ranking in the top 10 in total runs in the first half, the offense cratered to the bottom five in the second half. The auxiliary pieces of this lineup will need to have some moments in the postseason to lengthen the lineup. This is a more diverse group of hitters when comparing it to previous iterations of the Guardians. Previously predicated on making contact and stealing bases to produce runs, this team can do it in different ways. Free swinging Jhonkensy Noel has exceptional raw power and Kyle Manzardo’s strong September can help support the other core players. The postseason tends to always have surprise players making a big impact. Perhaps Kyle Manzardo can be that guy for the Cleveland Guardians.
Photo Credit: © David Richard-Imagn Images
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