Two 2024 playoff teams face off for the first three of 13 times
The Guardians open a three-game Opening Series against the Kansas City Royals today in Kansas City. Let’s get to know the teams as the season opens:
Royals – 2024 Record: 86-76, won second wildcard spot, lost to Yankees in AL Wildcard Round
Notable Offseason Moves: Picked up option on OF Hunter Renfroe, Re-signed starting RHP Michael Wacha to a three-year deal, Acquired IF LHH Jonathan India and OF RHH Joey Wiemar from the Reds for starting RHP Brady Singer, signed starting RHP Michael Lorenzen to a one-year deal, signed reliever RHP Carlos Estevez to a two-year deal, extended starting LHP Cole Ragans for three-years, traded for OF RHH Mark Canha, signed IF Cavan Biggio.
Royals Likely Roster from our sister site, Royals Review (if you visit here, please observe respectfully and don’t be a pest)
Lineup:
DH Jonathan India (L)
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (R)
1B Vinnie Pasquantino (L)
C Salvador Perez (R)
2B Michael Massey (L)
RF Hunter Renfroe (R)
LF MJ Melendez (L)
3B Maikel Garcia (R)
CF Kyle Isbel (L)
Bench
C Freddy Fermin (R)
IF Cavan Biggio (L)
OF Dairon Blanco (R)
OF Mark Canha (R)
Rotation:
LHP Cole Ragans
RHP Seth Lugo
RHP Michael Wacha
LHP Kris Bubic
RHP Michael Lorenzen
Bullpen:
Closer: RHP Carlos Estévez
RHP Lucas Erceg
RHP Hunter Harvey
LHP Angel Zerpa
RHP John Schreiber
LHP Sam Long
RHP Chris Stratton
LHP Daniel Lynch IV
Guardians 2024 Record: 92-69, won AL Central, lost in the ALCS to the New York Yankees
Guardians Significant Offseason Moves: Re-signed starting RHP Shane Bieber to a one-year deal with a mutual option, Re-signed catcher RH Austin Hedges, Traded for Luis L. Ortiz and two minor-league pitching prospects from the Pirates for 1B/2B Spencer Horwitz whom they acquired from Toronto for 2B Andres Gimenez and CF Myles Straw, signed 1B Carlos Santana to a one-year deal, traded 1B/DH LH Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks for starting/relieving RHP Slade Cecconi and a compensation pick in the 2025 MLB draft, signed starter RHP John Means to a one-year deal with a club option, signed reliever RHP Paul Sewald to a one-year deal, and signed reliever RHP Jakob Junis to a one-year deal, traded utility man RH Tyler Freeman to the Rockies for OF LH Nolan Jones, and signed starting RHP Tanner Bibee to a five-year extension with a club option for a sixth year.
Guardians’ Likely Roster:
LF Steven Kwan (L)
3B Jose Ramirez (S)
1B Carlos Santana (S)
DH Kyle Manzardo (LH)
RF Nolan Jones (L)
CF Lane Thomas (R)
C Bo Naylor (L)
2B Gabriel Arias (R)
SS Brayan Rocchio (S)
Bench:
C Austin Hedges (R)
UTIL Daniel Schneemann (L)
RF/1B Jhonkensy Noel (R)
RF/DH Johnathan Rodriguez (R)
Rotation:
RHP Tanner Bibee
RHP Gavin Williams
RHP Luis L. Ortiz
RHP Ben Lively
LHP Logan Allen
Bullpen:
Closer: RHP Emmanuel Clase
RHP Cade Smith
RHP Hunter Gaddis
LHP Tim Herrin
RHP Paul Sewald
RHP Jakob Junis
LHP Joey Cantillo
RHP Triston McKenzie
Game Previews:
Thursday, 4:10PM EDT – Game One – RHP Ben Lively* starting vs. LHP Cole Ragans
*Tanner Bibee was just announced to have food poisoning, so the rotation schedule is subject to change from this point out. Get well soon, Tanner.
Saturday, 4:10PM EDT – Game Two – RHP Gavin Williams starting vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT – Game Three – RHP Luis L. Ortiz starting vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Analysis:
The Guardians, Royals, Twins and Tigers seem set to establish a strong four-team race for the AL Central in 2025. Most public projections have all four teams with only about five wins separating them. In 2024, the Cleveland offense was 16th in MLB with 100 wRC+ and the Royals were 20th with 96 wRC+, the Cleveland rotation was 23rd in MLB with a 4.40 ERA and the Royals rotation was 3.55 ERA, the Cleveland bullpen was first in ERA with a 2.57 ERA, and the Royals bullpen was 20th with a 4.13 ERA, Cleveland was 17th in Baserunning runs above average at -1 and the Royals were seventh with 9 Baserunning runs above average, and the Cleveland defense was fourth in Defensive fWAR at 32.8 and the Royals were second in Defensive fWAR at 35.
It looks like both teams made some efforts to boost their offense, and Cleveland made concerted moves to improve their rotation, especially midseason with Shane Bieber’s expected return. Cleveland lost some defensive and baserunning prowess in Andres Gimenez, and will see if Carlos Santana and Gabriel Arias can help compensate for that on the right side of the infield. The Royals will see if returning their excellent rotation from 2024 and adding Michael Lorenzen and bumping former reliever Kris Bubic to that group will allow them to get a similar performance this season.
For this series, without any data to really go by, I’d watch to see how the Guardians handle pitching to Bobby Witt, Jr. If they can minimize Witt’s ability to damage them, especially with runners on base, that’s the best way to control a Royals’ offense that still has a lot of question marks outside of their AL MVP candidate. Meanwhile, it’ll be important for the Cleveland offense to work counts and try to get into the Kansas City bullpen as soon as possible. The Guardians see a lot of AL Central foes early in the season, so their performance in April may have an outsized impact on the final season standings.
Let’s go, Guardians!