Let’s see what the overall projections are saying about Cleveland
The projections’ systems at FanGraphs have each spit out their calculation of how Guardians’ hitters and pitchers will perform in 2025. Let’s see what the overall conclusion is for the prominent players on whom our hopes will be pinned for ending the franchise’s World Series drought:
Hitters (The average of FanGraphs’ eight projections systems, except where otherwise noted and then each hitters high-end and low-end projection):
Jose Ramirez – 132.75 wRC+ (High: 136, Low: 129)
Steven Kwan – 115.38 wRC+ (High: 124, Low: 99)
Kyle Manzardo – 113 wRC+ (High: 121, Low: 100)
David Fry – 108.13 wRC+ (High: 112, Low: 102)
Lane Thomas – 104.63 wRC+ (High: 108, Low: 98)
Chase DeLauter – 104.25 wRC+ (High: 114, Low: 94)
Tyler Freeman – 103.13 wRC+ (High: 110, Low: 99)
Johnathan Rodriguez – 102.65 wRC+ (High: 112, Low: 89)
Jhonkensy Noel – 98.5 wRC+ (High: 111, Low: 91)
Will Brennan – 99.75 wRC+ (High: 106, Low: 94)
Carlos Santana – 97.87 wRC+ (High: 109, Low: 87)
Cooper Ingle – 97 wRC+ (High: 107, Low: 87 – Only 2 projections)
Bo Naylor – 96.5 wRC+ (High: 102, Low: 87)
George Valera – 96.5 wRC+ (High: 98, Low: 95 – Only 2 Projections)
Juan Brito – 95.5 wRC+ (High: 98, Low: 92)
Gabriel Arias – 91.63 wRC+ (High: 98, Low: 81)
Angel Martinez – 91.38 wRC+ (High: 95, Low: 82)
Brayan Rocchio – 90.88 wRC+ (High: 102, Low: 79)
Daniel Schneemann – 85.75 (High: 90, Low: 80)
Analysis: Eight hitters projected to be above average big leaguers isn’t bad, but it’s also not exceptional, given that Jose is the only one projected over 120 wRC+. I think it looks like a group with a high floor but a low ceiling, so we’ll see if they can exceed expectations. The projection systems really like Tyler Freeman and Chase DeLauter, that’s for sure.
For pitchers, I will focus in on ERA as the projections’ way of telling what a player’s output should be. During the season, it’s more helpful to look at SIERA, FIP and xERA to predict what should come next but an ERA is the actual production given.
Starting Pitchers (From the average of 6-7 projections systems, also including the best and worst ERA prediction):
Shane Bieber – 3.67 ERA (Low: 3.61, High: 3.77)
Tanner Bibee – 3.66 ERA (Low: 3.48, High: 3.87)
Gavin Williams – 3.94 (Low: 3.69, High: 4.11)
Joey Cantillo – 3.96 (Low: 3.69, High: 4.08 *Projections have him primarily in relief)
Slade Cecconi – 4.19 (Low: 3.92, High: 4.55 *Projections have him primarily in relief)
Luis Ortiz – 4.25 (Low: 3.99, High: 4.62)
Doug Nikhazy – 4.38 (Low: 4.11, High: 4.71)
Vince Velazquez – 4.40 (Low: 4.02, High: 4.96)
Logan Allen – 4.46 (Low: 4.26, High: 4.86)
Ben Lively – 4.57 (Low: 4.22, High: 4.90)
Triston McKenzie – 4.78 (Low: 4.64, High: 4.87)
Also, the lottery ticket: John Means – 4.04 (Low: 3.33, High: 4.48)
Analysis: Generally speaking, I feel safe assuming the Guardians will get the most out of their pitchers. If they can get the low-end ERA outputs from this collection of starters, their rotation should be dramatically improved. I would monitor Velazquez closely because if he looks healthy, I could see them finding a way to keep him on the roster. I also hope they give Cantillo a legitimate chance to win a rotation spot.
Relief Pitchers (From the average of 6-7 projections systems, also including the best and worst ERA prediction):
Emmanuel Clase – 2.55 ERA (Low: 2.15, High: 3.10)
Cade Smith – 2.96 ERA (Low: 2.82, High: 3.11)
Tim Herrin – 3.37 ERA (Low: 3.30, High: 3.49)
Erik Sabrowski – 3.68 ERA (Low: 3.62, High: 3.83)
Nic Enright – 3.69 ERA (Low: 3.39, High: 3.98)
Paul Sewald – 3.80 ERA (Low: 3.57, High: 4.03)
Franco Aleman – 3.89 ERA (Low: 3.57, High: 3.99)
Andrew Walters – 3.90 ERA (Low: 3.67, High: 4.13)
Hunter Gaddis – 3.97 ERA (Low: 3.91, High: 4.15)
Jakob Junis – 4.30 ERA (Low: 3.93, High: 4.62)
Analysis: This looks like a good bullpen but it is notable how much of an adjustment it will be to see Clase, Smith, Herrin and Gaddis actually give up some runs, as we should expect they will do. I feel most confident that Gaddis and Junis will beat their projections, but it’s worth noting the warning the computers see in their underlying stats from 2024. Looks to me like Enright should get a real shot at making the pen.
Overall, the biggest questions for the Guardians remain whether they will be able to get more from their young hitters than what the projections’ systems predict given available data. If they can get a breakout or two and solid production from their proven bats, this team should make the 2025 playoffs provided a modicum of good health.