After seemingly righting things by salvaging a split against the Twins and sweeping the Cubs, the Guardians embarked on arguably their most pivotal road-trip within what is a challenging second half schedule. Unfortunately, that road-trip has began poorly with Cleveland having been swept by the National League Central leading Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend.
Despite the rough start, the Guards can still recover and make the most of the second half of their road trip. To do that though they will face a tall task by going into New York and opposing arguably baseball’s toughest team the Yankees. Fangraphs lists New York as the most likely team to win the American League this season based on their projection metrics, and for good reason.
The Yankees Offense vs. The Guardians Bullpen
The best unit in the entire series may be the Guardians bullpen, which is still the best in the sport. However, it could very well also be the Yankees’ offense.
The Yankees statistically sport the best offense in baseball based off of weighted Runs Created+. By simpler stats, they are nearly as impressive, coming in at first in On Base Percentage, third in Slugging, and second in both runs scored and home runs over the course of the season. They’re led by two Most Valuable Player candidates in outfielders Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Judge leads the Majors in several statistical categories including home runs (44), RBI (111) and OPS (1.172). He is certifiably the best hitter in baseball right now, paired with Soto who himself has hit 34 home runs while walking more often than he strikes out this season. Add catcher Austin Wells to the mix, who is hitting .340 in August, and it is easy to see that the Guardians’ pitching staff could have their hands full this week, especially in the intimate confines of Yankees Stadium.
At some point in this series, we could get Judge and Soto vs. Emmanuel Clase, which would be an absolute clash of the titans. The series very well could come down to what happens when push comes to shove and the best bullpen in baseball has to keep a lid on the game’s best offense. Usually, great pitching beats great hitting, but things can get wonky in the Bronx.
The Guardians Starting Rotation Will Get a Stress Test
Of course, for the Guardians bullpen to pitch in meaningful innings late in games, Cleveland’s starting rotation will have to hold its own. While the Guardians’ starting pitchers have been their weakness through the course of the season, the team has tried to fortify the rotation in recent weeks.
And wouldn’t you know that the schedule and starting rotation has lined up in such a way that the Guardians’ newly revamped starting five will get a stress test this week. Mid-season signee Matthew Boyd will get his second start as a Guardians on Tuesday to open up the series. He was excellent in his maiden voyage as a Guardians against the Cubs, pitching 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one run and striking out six, but the degree of difficulty is about to increase significantly.
The Guardians haven’t named a starter for Wednesday yet, but if they are following a typical rotation, it would seem that their other new addition, Alex Cobb, would be on the hill that night. Cobb also looked strong against Chicago last week but did struggle some against the Twins in his first start. He has allowed five earned runs in 10 1/3 Major League innings between the two appearances. If Cobb can pitch into the sixth inning while limiting the Yankees to just a couple of runs, it would instill confidence that he is healthy, up to speed and a legitimate candidate to help add much-needed depth to Cleveland’s starting rotation.
The lack of an announcement on Cobb starting Wednesday could have something to do with a quirk in the season schedule. By Wednesday, the Guardians will have had two off days within a week. Cobb’s last start came last Wednesday, the day before an off-day with Monday also being an off-day. Alternatively, Gavin Williams would be rested and ready to pitch on Wednesday if needed, but he has been named Thursday’s starter instead. It is peculiar that the process of elimination dictates that it would be Cobb’s turn to pitch, but he hasn’t been named yet.
It does raise the question of if something is physically wrong with Cobb. Cobb was acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline but had not actually pitched in an MLB game for the Giants this season due to injuries dating back to last September. It would make sense then to feel some cause for concern given the fact that Cobb’s starting status is not official. However, there seems to be no record of a new injury issue with Cobb. I suspect he will make the start and perhaps some sort of gamesmanship is at play.
For his part, Williams missed nearly the entire first half of the season with an elbow injury and regrettably has had difficulty finding his footing since being given a clean bill of health. To this point, he has made nine starts and pitched 43 innings but has booked a 5.02 ERA. While he has put together solid outings including a five-inning, no-run, eight-K performance against Detroit and a six-inning no-walk, one-run performance against Minnesota, he has also not pitched more than four innings on four separate occasions. These include a four-inning, five-run appearance vs. the Brewers just this past weekend and another against the lowly White Sox earlier in the summer.
All of this is to say that on paper, all three of these starters for the Guardians are expected to be part of the solution to the team’s lack of consistent quality starting pitching, but none of them is a sure thing. There are still about six weeks left to this season, but at this point more reinforcements are not coming. The players that the Guardians have now will be the ones they have when trying to decide on a post-season roster in October. This six game road-trip to Milwaukee and New York should rightfully be considered a test for this team and especially its retooled starting rotation. For their part, Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively were rock solid this weekend. Even outside of wins and losses themselves, it would do a lot for the team to get quality showings this week from their starters. It would certainly add a little security.
The Guardians Offense Needs a Jump-start, and Preferably in Game One
There is no getting around the fact that the Guardians’ offense has struggled in the last two weeks or so. The team has gone 5-10 in their last fifteen games and the poor results have been spurred on significantly by the fact they have had the second worst weighted Runs Created + in the Majors over those fifteen games.
You may think that the reason why the Guardians have struggled offensively is because the bottom has dropped out in terms of their power potential. The Guardians have muscled up this season after being one of the weakest HR-hitting teams in the league over the last two years. Maybe the clock has struck twelve on the prospects of hitting the ball over the fence. This would be a natural thing to assume given the makeup of the team over the last few seasons. However, this line of thinking is not the case. The Guardians are 9th in homers over this 15-game stretch.
Their other main characteristic over the last three seasons has been their strikeout avoidance, and that has also remained even during this rough patch. They’re still 9th best in K-rate during these 15 games.
Instead, the Guardians are actually second last in the league in batting average over their last fifteen games. Interestingly, despite the home runs, the Guardians struggles can be attributed heavily to an abundance of weak contact. Newly acquired outfielder Lane Thomas is accompanied by Tyler Freeman and shortstop Brayan Rocchio in terms of hitters with at least 50 plate appearances since Aug 3rd who are in the worst 10% of the league for quality of contact. Only Steven Kwan, David Fry and Jose Ramirez have been above average.
In order to right themselves, the Guardians will have to combat a rookie starter having a promising season as well as two well-known veterans. The Guards will face Yankees’ rookie Luis Gil on Tuesday. Gil, who has made 23 starts after missing most of 2023 with Tommy John surgery, has pitched to a 3.25 ERA this season, though he does lead baseball in walks allowed. If the Guardians can be patient, get themselves into good counts and take free passes, it may allow them to jump-start their offense for the rest of the series. With hits being hard to come by, if they can generate base-runners via walk and more hard-hit balls by getting into good counts, this could be a recipe for a strong offensive showing.
The rest of the series will entail starts by Nestor Cortes and Gerrit Cole. Cortes is an established Major Leaguer with a quality track record while Cole has been one of the best starters in the game over the last few seasons. However, both have been just decent this season with ERAs over four. Both still know how to pitch and can smite an offense on any given night, especially one that isn’t executing at its best, but at the same time, they seem touchable right now.
Game one of the series may make a world of difference for the Guards if they can take advantage of Gil’s lack of command and get themselves going. That could take some pressure off. Cortes and Cole have not been flawless. They are beatable, but a spark in game one could really help Cleveland feel good about themselves and put them in a better position to beat the two veterans. If game one doesn’t go well, I could very well see their struggles continuing for the duration of the series as the Guard’s offense presses their way through games against Cortes and Cole. The duo would be happy to pitch deep into their ballgames and allow Cleveland to get themselves out.
Final Thoughts
While no one series or even one road trip makes or breaks a season, this series against the Yankees could make a statement. If the Guardians can put together an impressive showing and compete with New York, they will find a new way to stake a claim as legitimate contenders for this year’s American League pennant. If they could win this series it would certainly build some confidence and perhaps help the team come out of a funk that has lasted over the last 15 games. Even if the Guardians end up not taking the series, even something as simple as getting strong starts out of Boyd, Cobb and Williams would go a long way to solidifying the starting rotation with the playoffs starting to appear on the horizon. These three games aren’t do or die, but they certainly are a test.
Disclaimer: This article was written on Sunday night, and as such, Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference had not updated their databases. This means some statistics listed do not include Sunday’s results. It should not affect the spirit of the information or the article.
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