The Guardians know their opponent for the American League Division Series, and it is a familiar one. The Detroit Tigers concisely completed their Wildcard Series victory against the Houston Astros on Wednesday night and have set course for Progressive Field. Series play begins on Saturday at 1 PM.
The fact that Detroit, of all teams, will be the Guardians match-up to begin the post-season is a surprise turn of events in itself. On Independence Day, the Tigers hit a low watermark. They were 39-48, nine games below .500 and 16 games out of the AL Central Division while residing in 4th place. But starting with the day after the holiday, the Tigers went 48-28. Even more impressive, no team had a better record starting on August 11th (30-13).
Simply put, they’re the hottest team in baseball. As such, I have to admit, they are quite dangerous. Since the calendar flipped to August, Tigers’ pitchers have posted a cumulative ERA of 2.91. No other team is below 3.15 during that time period. And no matter where you land on the space-time continuum, staff ace Tarik Skubal has been otherworldly. He is likely the front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award, a left-handed pitcher with a high-90s fastball, devastating change-up and the results to go along with the stuff. He recorded 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA and a 2.70 expected ERA, all of which were AL bests. He was also top seven in all of baseball in all of Ks, walks and home runs per nine innings.
Along with Skubal, manager AJ Hinch deserves a massive amount of credit for the pitching proficiency that led to Detroit’s turnaround. In the Astros series, Hinch stated the team’s pitching strategy would be “Skubal and bullpen chaos.” This was an appropriate definition. Skubal pitched six scoreless innings in Game 1 and following that performance, Hinch made ten pitching changes over the course of the next 12 innings. Detroit allowed just three runs total and in the process, swept the Astros.
Detroit only regularly used two starters down the stretch during their hot streak: Skubal and rookie Keider Montero. Just because Montero was used in a traditional starter role during the regular season doesn’t mean to expect that type of orthodoxy now in October. He could be the Game 1 starter for Hinch as he was not used against Houston, but Detroit could be just as likely to mix and match their pitchers as they did successfully in Game 2 of the Astros’ series. For his part, Hinch has not yet announced a Game 1 starter.
So yeah, Skubal and bullpen chaos sounds about right, but it has worked for Detroit. They had five different pitchers throw 20 innings after August 1st and post an ERA below 2.00, shockingly none of them have a name that rhymes with Sarik Kubal, though he was still a really good 2.47 over that same time period. Lefties Sean Guenther and Tyler Holton and righties Jason Foley, Brenan Hanifee and Beau Brieske are the hot hands in question and I would expect to see them early and often in this first to three wins series.
We do know that with Skubal having pitched in Game 1 of the Wildcard Series he should be set up to pitch Game 2 on regular rest come Monday (Sunday is an off day for television reasons). This is incredibly significant because Skubal would then also be on regular rest for a potential deciding Game 5. In which case, the Guardians will either have to win all the non-Skubal pitched games in the series, or find a way to better him at least once.
Even with all the feel-good vibes, positive momentum and pitching prowess they have, Detroit is far from a foolproof ball club. Even with their success, their offense has been fairly run-of-the-mill. In the last two months of the season, their wRC+ was essentially league average at 99. They hit the fourth fewest home runs over this time period while also striking out the fifth most often among all MLB teams. Over the greater season, they are in the bottom third as a team in most offensive categories including wRC+ (95) and bottom out as the second worst team in terms of On Base Percentage.
That said, the Tigers do have some good individual performers in their lineup to be cognizant of. RF Kerry Carpenter (.284 AVG, 18 homers in 87 games) has been really good when healthy. All-Star OF Riley Greene (.348 OBP, 82 runs scored in 137 games) is only 24 years old and is going to be a thorn in Cleveland’s side not just in this series but for many years. But overall, Detroit’s offense is an Achilles heel. I wouldn’t expect them to score runs in bunches in this series.
For their part, the Guardians will aim to make the most of that Achilles heal. While the Tigers’ bullpen has been great down the stretch, Cleveland’s has been superb from start to finish. While Detroit had five relievers with ERAs below 2.00 since August 1st, Cleveland had five relievers with ERAs below 2.00 for the entire season- Eli Morgan, Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. They’ve done this while maintaining more traditional bullpen roles over the course of all 162 games.
Vogt hasn’t stated how he plans to manage his pitching situation outside of starting ace Tanner Bibee in Game 1, but it is likely that he will begin games with starters like Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb or Ben Lively. Boyd, in particular, has provided a huge boost since joining the team mid-season. The former Tiger has a 2.72 ERA in his last eight starts. Getting some length out of starters would help protect the best bullpen in baseball over the course of a series and playoffs, but I would not expect Vogt to delay if he needs to deploy his most effective weapons.
Offensively, the Guardians have a more potent lineup than Detroit as well. It all starts with star third baseman Jose Ramirez, who was potentially robbed of a 40/40 season by Mother Nature this past Sunday. Ramirez hit a scorching .347 with five home runs against the Tigers this season, boding well for his success in this series (he’s a .429 lifetime hitter in 21 at-bats against Skubal as well). Cleveland’s long-running star is protected in the order by All-Star first baseman Josh Naylor, coming off this first season of more than 30 home runs and 100 RBI in his career.
Cleveland’s offense very well could be the X-factor in this series, as there are a number of players who have the potential to emerge as post-season performers. How lead-off man Steven Kwan will fare after only playing two games following his second stint on the Injured List this year is yet to be seen. His OBP in his return was a massive .625, but that’s a hilariously small sample. DH and right-handed hitter David Fry will likely play in a platoon role, but could be a key contributor against Detroit’s left-handed pitching (I hate to keep bringing him up like his 1995 Randy Johnson or something, but like Skubal). Right-fielder Jhokensy Noel could provide the instant kind of power punch the Guardians have lacked and could use in a short series, but only if he can maintain his composure at the plate and find a good pitch to square up against a tough opposing pitching staff.
The remaining X-factor is one that is impossible to measure in advance. How the Guardians will respond to a nearly week-long layoff is yet to be seen. Vogt spoke in advance of the break as something that the team could use to get healthy, much preferring having the rest than to having to compete their way into the Division Series. It would likely do wonders for the Guardians if they can scrape a couple of runs early in Game 1 and play with a lead. Not only would it allow Bibee to pitch from ahead and get the game to the league’s best bullpen, but it could take the pressure off and allow the team to not let their potential rust compound, causing them to press.
Conclusion
It is actually quite interesting how the Tigers have evolved to somewhat mimic Cleveland. The Guardians have a better offense with more established star power, but really, the chasm between the two teams’ offensive production is far from wide. Meanwhile, both teams have an ace that they feel great about handing the ball to, but this year’s numbers would suggest that Skubal is a surer bet than Bibee. Both managers use their benches liberally. Only two teams pinch hit more often than Hinch’s Tigers. Vogt gradually started using more in-game platoon swaps and defense for offense pinch-hitting decisions as the season progressed as well. I expect both managers to make decisions and leave their fingerprints on this series. And lastly, while Cleveland has had far and away the best bullpen in baseball from start to finish, Detroit has relied upon an impressive stable of relievers in order to make it here.
Ultimately, I think the Guardians will overcome the layoff, their managerial inexperience and a surging Detroit team simply because they are the superior version of what Detroit is trying to be. While I think this is going to be a low-scoring series, I have more faith that Cleveland can use its offense to push runners across home plate early in games and get the ball to the back end of their lock-down bullpen than Detroit. Cleveland is actually the better home run hitting team in this series and while homers haven’t been plentiful so far this October, they still are vastly important to post-season offense. Find a way to run into a couple against Skubal in Game 2, and this could actually be a quick series.
Prediction: Guardians in Four.
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