Top 20 Guardians’ Hitting Prospects | Cleveland Sports Today

Beloit Sky Carp v Lake County Captains — Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Tool Grades, Relevant Stats, and Supporting Rationale

From 17-year-olds in the Dominican Republic to former college super stars, the Cleveland Guardians’ farm system is riddled with talent. The Guardians’ player development and drafting is often lauded among the best in the league, and for good reason. Many sites are releasing their annual Top 100 prospects lists, and I have decided to take on the challenge of diving deep into the Guardians’ organizational depth. In this article, I will be ranking the top 20 hitters in the Guardians’ organization.

The way I will be arranging these rankings is by future value (FV). Prospects will be divided into tiers based on their FV. For those unfamiliar with FV, the basis of what it actually means is seen in this table below:

Before I dive into the rankings, I want to talk a little about my philosophy when it comes to evaluating prospects, especially where I differ from others. First off, results are great to look at and easy to digest, but they are a very small part of my prospect evaluation process. Results are always relative, that’s why ‘Stat Line Scouting’ is typically ineffective. This will be clear as there are a few players whose 2024 MiLB performance might suggest higher rankings than I have given them. When I get there, I will give the rationale behind my decision. The second piece of my ranking philosophy is an emphasis on prospect risk level. You will notice in my ranking that within every tier of FV the prospects are ranked based on their attributed risk level.

When it comes to evaluating a player, their tools are what is most important, each tool will be graded on a 20-80 scale. I have always believed that most public sided prospect evaluators have a fundamental problem with how they evaluate a player’s hit tool. Plate discipline is incredibly important to any hitter and omitting it from consideration leads to players with only bat to ball skills having overrated hit tools. Players can make as much contact as they want… it won’t do them much good if they generate tons weak contact on pitcher’s pitches. Combining bat control and plate discipline creates a much more comprehensive summary of a player’s hitting ability. I will give my grade of both those aspects of the hit tool alongside the full grade. However, there is a third piece that can influence a player’s hit tool: bat path. A good bat path creates optimal contact, avoiding rollovers and popups, which can make or break a player’s ability to hit at the major league level. Bat path is something that I value very highly; I believe it is the next big thing in hitter evaluation. Bat path is also very important when considering a player’s ability to tap into their power. An extreme example of a player with elite raw power who lacks elite homerun output because of their bat path is former Guardian Yandy Diaz. As Ted Williams once told Don Mattingly, you don’t hit homers on the ground.

Accompanying each player’s tool grades will be a relevant statistic from their 2024 campaign. Each player’s bio will also have their rankings from some major prospect sites listed.

Disclaimers:

· Only players with significant time spent at AAA have numbers available for Path Score and 90^th percentile exit velocity. Other players bat path ratings are based on multiple factors that are key to evaluating bat path such as batted ball rates as well as my own opinion.

· Players below A ball do not have much public sided data available, so they will have very little statistics attached to their ratings.

· Graphic Design is NOT my passion. All graphics were created with no love in my heart, and it is evident.

#1: Travis Bazzana

Travis Bazzana is the only player to be selected first overall while not being a United States citizen, as well as the first Australian to be selected in the first round. The Aussie gets nothing but praise for both his absurd work ethic and high-quality character. While he isn’t exactly the physical marvel you might expect from a first overall pick, coming in at roughly 6’/200, his skillset gives him a very high floor. Travis’s great plate discipline allows him to pick his pitches to attack effectively. When Bazzana gets his pitch, he gets out in front of it and pulls it in the air as well as anybody. Though, similar to recently graduated prospect Kyle Manzardo, he can sometimes get caught being too passive at the plate.

In Bazzana’s professional debut season of around 30 (regular season) A+ games, he played to expectation and posted a 126 wRC+ with above average contact and chase numbers. It was also abundantly clear that he adjusted to professional ball more and more as the season progressed. In the Lake County Captains’ championship run Bazzana hit his way to an OPS of .961 in the leadoff spot, while also showing off the electricity he brings to the table as a teammate.

Bazzana’s great plate discipline and above average contact skills lend himself toward a good hit tool, but it is his bat path that really sets him apart from most prospects. Travis Bazzana’s swing was quite literally designed in a lab, that lab being the ever ‘ahead of the curve’ Driveline facility in Seattle. He is quick to the zone and his swing creates lift when he makes hard contact, while also generating a lot of backspin. His ability to hit the ball at ideal launch angles is going to naturally boost his BABIP above those who are more prone to roll overs and pop-ups. Travis swings at above average speeds, providing the raw power make him a serious home run threat. Perhaps Bazzana’s greatest skill is being able to fully tap into every bit of his power, thanks to his excellent bat path as well as tendency to pull the ball.

Bazzana runs well and is projected to steal from 20-30 bases a season in MLB, adding a valuable asset to his profile. Many prospect evaluators have him as a below-average defender at second base, and while that assessment is not necessarily wrong, I have faith in the Guardians’ development system to raise his defensive ability to around average. It certainly would not be the first time that the Guardians did such a thing. I would have written about the possibility that Bazzana may transition to CF if the Guardians had not traded away Andres Gimenez, sending a clear message that Travis Bazzana is the 2B of the future.

Bazzana projects for a path similar to the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, Dylan Crews. I expect he will spend most of 2025 in MiLB before debuting just in time to be eligible for a potential playoff roster while maintaining rookie status for 2026. That is assuming no major injuries or struggles of course.

#2 Chase DeLauter

Surprise Saguaros v. Scottsdale Scorpions

Chase “CDL” DeLauter was the Guardians’ 1st round pick in the 2022 draft out of James Madison University. Chase has only recorded 534 plate appearances in the minor leagues the past two seasons due to a myriad of foot injuries. Those injuries are the reason he is listed as a medium level risk, as his skillset and reputation projects him to be a relatively low risk prospect. CDL has looked like one of the best players on the field at every level he has played, including major league spring training. DeLauter was given an invite to MLB spring training this season and its hard to imagine he doesn’t make the opening day roster if he hits like he did last year. His stat line in 13 spring training games was: .520/.600/1.040 with 4 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. The biggest question on his path to MLB is health, if he stays healthy through spring training and the month of April he is most likely going to be starting in Cleveland by May 1st at the latest (wishful thinking?).

CDL described his ‘presence in the box’ as his biggest strength and I agree wholeheartedly. Chase doesn’t chase, he doesn’t whiff, and he doesn’t let his pitch go by. I empathize with pitchers and catchers that have to gameplan for him. He does have an Achille’s heel in the form of a very flat bat path. CDL has a funky swing, the aesthetics and short follow through aren’t a problem, however the flat bat path could be. DeLauter is more prone to grounders and popups than average, which lessens the effectiveness of the rest of his tool kit. His bat path might turn his 30 homer power into 15-20, but there is a possibility that his amazing pitch recognition can pick up the slack. When he gets out in front of the ball he creates lift and he has shown a great ability to do that so far. Corbin Carrol has a similar offensive toolkit as CDL and also has a very poor bat path.

DeLauter’s offensive profile has always garnered the most attention, but his ability in the field is nothing to scoff at. DeLauter projects as an above average cOF, and there is some belief (including some in the Guardians’ organization) that CDL can stick in CF. He certainly has the speed for it, having posted extremely impressive sprint speeds of 30 ft/s.

#3: Ralphy Velazquez

First round pick out of high school in 2023, Ralphy Velazquez is toolsy hitter that is advanced for his age. He was drafted as a catcher but the chances of him ever playing there are slim to none. Ralphy was asked to play some LF this year where he played alright defense and recorded a highlight home run robbery.

His profile in total reminds me of Josh Naylor at his age. Ralphy has a better eye and bat path than Naylor did, but makes less contact; totaling a roughly equal hit tool. His bat speed is elite as he is capable of swinging it up to 80mph. I believe he has all the tools necessary to fully tap into that 70 grade raw power, with a good swing path and around average swing decisions.

I am very high on Ralphy, most have the next two prospects ahead of him. His level of development at only 19 years old coupled with true top of the line raw power gives me the confidence to rank him as highly as I did.

#4: Angel Genao

Angel Genao is the latest in a long stretch of promising switch hitting SS prospects for the Guardians. Genao outhit Travis Bazzana during the Lake County Captains’ championship run with an unbelievable 1.466 OPS. There’s a lot to like in Genao’s profile, hes a well rounded player with serious upside at the plate. Right now, I rate Genao better than I rated Brayan Rocchio at the same age. Genao had some intrigue behind him going into 2024 before he exploded and put up an extremely impressive performance split between low and high A. 2025 is a test for him, if he can maintain similar swing/take metrics and continue to develop his power at AA he will be considered a 60FV prospect and likely land himself in the top 20 in baseball overall.

The biggest thing for Genao is the bat path (I know I sound like a broken record). He continuously posts impressively low popup% for his age/level. As of now he hits too many balls into the ground, but the fact that he isn’t popping many balls up is a green flag that tells me the swing is good and the batted ball outcomes will improve with more experience.

By the end of the 2025 season Angel Genao may very well be the Guardian’s #1 prospect, especially if both Bazzana and DeLauter graduate. I personally will be keeping very close track of how he handles AA as the jump from A+ is considered the most challenging of all. So, if he doesn’t flourish it isn’t automatically a cause for concern, but if he does… the sky is the limit for Genao.

#5 Jaison Chourio

Younger brother to Brewers’ star Jackson, Chourio is as safe as a prospect that hasn’t played above low A can be. Chourio has great contact ability and plate discipline, though his below average bat path keeps his hit tool from being potentially 70 grade. Jaison plays great defense and runs well but I have ranked him lower than ‘the herd’ for one reason: power. Perhaps it is unfair to compare Jaison to his superstar brother, but at the same age Jackson posted a 20 home run season at AA while Jaison hit only 5 at low A. His size is projectable, and it is not unthinable he has a power breakout in 2025… but until then he is a solid prospect to me with potential to rise quickly (hence 50+ rather than 50FV)

It was puzzling to me that the Guardians kept Chourio in Lynchburg as long as they did while they moved a younger player in Ralphy Velazquez up to A+, and perhaps that has to do a little with my perception of the two prospects. Chourio is exciting and defensive value makes him a low floor prospect, 2025 could be a big year for him if he is able to make the jump to A+ (and potentially AA later on in the year).

#6: Juan Brito

Los Angeles Dodgers v Cleveland Guardians

Juan Brito is a hitter. He swings at good pitches, he makes contact, and he outperforms his raw power with great barrel control and a knack for pulling balls in the air. Brito has played well at every level despite always being one of the youngest players on the field. Brito is likely to play a majority of the reps at 2B this season, and he has a real chance at winning the spot out of spring training.

His profile at the plate reminds me of Alex Bregman, but I would not even dream on him being as productive as the former Astro. Brito has the arm for 3rd base, but that position is pretty covered for the guardians. There is also a possibility that Brito get some reps in RF due to that plus arm, but with a wide open 2B in the lineup card its hard to imagine he spends much time elsewhere.

#7: Juneiker Caceres

This is my most aggressive ranking by far. Caceres only has one season of DSL under his belt which he played at the age of 16 years old. He played absolutely fantastic with a wRC+ of 146 in 40 games. His swing is both very pretty and very practical, and he has the potential to walk as much as he strikes out. I project him to have above average pop, though he did not hit any homers last season (remember he was only 16).

I think soon we will be talking about Juneiker like we talked about George Valera years ago, and the prospect evaluation industry will begin to take notice at his play and his 80 grade name.

#8: Robert Arias

Arias was a highly touted international prospect that has so far showed flashes of a good hit tool despite his incredibly aggressive approach at the plate. At only 18 years of age there is much growth to come for him as he projects as a more impressive athlete as Juneiker Caceres.

My biggest hangup for Arias is the swing, theres an awkward hitch that flattens the swing more than what’s desirable.

#9: Kahlil Watson

New Hampshire Fisher Cats v Akron RubberDucks

Acquired in the Josh Bell trade from the Marlins, Watson is a former first round pick with an impressive athletic profile. In short, he is like Gabriel Arias in terms of defensive ability, raw power, and poor hit tool but he has a much better bat path than Arias giving me much greater confidence that he will be able to tap into that raw power. Watson has hit at about average level production at every level while being very young. Something that I don’t usually comment on is potential character issues but for Watson it’s important to mention that he had a uniquely bad (and admittedly uniquely funny) altercation with an umpire while in the Marlins organization. Although, he is not the first former Marlin first rounder with an major red flag moment to come to the Guardians and we can only hope he turns out as well as the first one (Josh Naylor).

Watson was extended an invite to spring training as an outfielder, which makes sense given the Guardians current need for defensively capable outfielders. It will be really interesting to see if he is exposed by major league pitching in the spring or if he reignites his profile as a top prospect.

#10: Welbyn Francisca

I might get a little flack for this ranking, but I just am not bought in on Welbyn Francisca yet. He was very impressive this past year and was one of the most productive hitters at every level he visited as an 18 year old, but the total profile gives me pause. As of now his biggest strength is being ‘advanced’ for his age, which is important but means little to me without the tools to one day be a great major leaguer.

He has flashed some impressive exit velocities, making it quite possible that I am missing the mark big time here but I will stand firm that Welbyn is not (atleast not yet) in the upper echelon of Guardians’ prospects. All in all he is still a good prospect, and projects to be an average defender up the middle with a decent bat.

#11: Cooper Ingle

Cooper Ingle is another prospect that I am lower on than most. That has been a source of ire for a few people, including Ingle himself*. Ingle has good plate approach and they is little concern for his contact ability. His swing is just so flat that I can’t bring myself to rate him any higher than where he is right now. Now, he is said to be focusing on creating more lift in his swing this offseason so there is a chance that bat path is going to be new and improved come 2025.

He projects to be a solid backup catcher type with potentially a good enough bat to have some time at DH or possibly move to 1B or a cOF spot.

* Ingle is a great guy but did take issue when I referred to him as a ‘rollover machine’ which is totally fair. We had a good chat afterwards.

#12: Jacob Cozart

COLLEGE BASEBALL: MAR 12 NC State at Miami

Cozart is a glove first catcher with some pop in his tank. He was the second round pick for the Guardians in 2024 and has not fared well in his short time in pro-ball so far. There’s some moderate upside here, a good outcome for him would be a Kyle Higashioka type player.

2025 we will get to see him really settle into pro baseball and see what he is capable of at the plate, the good news is that the glove gives him a decently high floor and a good chance to be at least a backup catcher.

#13: Dayan Frias

Frias is a glove first versatile infielder with a slightly below average bat projection. There is nothing particularly remarkable about Frias, but he is a possible productive utility man that can spell all 3 main infield positions.

#14: George Valera

Former top prospect George Valera was DFA-ed earlier this offseason, but ended up back here with the Guardians. I was very happy to see him return as I think Valera still has talent to offer the big league club and soon. He has a good eye and makes enough contact to get by while having great power. Valera is a platoon bat that would make an entertaining RF platoon partner to Jhonkensy Noel.

The road has been tough for Valera but he is finally ready to face the big leagues if his health permits, I hope for his sake that he gets his shot this year and excels.

#15: Luis Merejo

Merejo popped big time in 2024 and showed off some pretty impressive power at Lynchburg. There is a ton of risk in his profile but the raw power is very enticing to dream on, a full season of Merejo at affilliated ball might push him either way up the rankings or drop him out of my top 20.

#16: CJ Kayfus

Alright, I am going to get called some names for this one. Believe me, there is nobody who hopes I am wrong about Kayfus more than me. The problem with his profile in my eyes is there isn’t any outstanding tool, and with little to offer on the defensive side the risk of him being a productive major leaguer is very high. His results were eye grabbing throughout 2024 in MiLB but I am not yet convinced, I believe he is being overrated because of his attractive swing. His swing is a pretty one, but its about average in terms of its effectiveness.

Take your screenshots and keep your receipts I will be glad to accept them if I am wrong here.

#17: Alex Mooney

Mooney is a solid SS that played a pretty impressive first full pro year at A+. His hit tool is suspect but he projects for around average power, and he has shown some ability to pull the ball in the air so far.

There is certainly some potential for him to rise if he plays well in Akron this upcoming season.

#18: Alfonsin Rosario

Rosario has some impressive tools but has a lot of trouble making consistent contact. The Guardians acquired him for Eli Morgan this offseason, perhaps the Guardians saw something they think they can change to improve his bat to ball skills.

Rosario is an amazing athlete with some power but he has to start making contact or else he probably wont sniff the major leagues.

#19: Johnathan Rodriguez

Another player that I would be happy to be wrong about, Johnathan Rodriguez simply does not do it for me. He has hit at AAA the past year or so and projection systems like him a lot for 2025 but I cannot get past his swing path. Without any defensive value to keep him in the lineup, a player with this profile has Quad-A written all over it. The poor bat path will keep him from any consistent production, even if he has a couple hot streaks where the power flashes.

Johnathan Rodriguez is likely to get some playing time in 2025, so we will see if he is able to prove me wrong and stick.

#20: Petey Halpin

Halpin is a good defensive outfielder with a very concerning hit tool. I, along with many others, was surprised to see him added to the 40 man roster as Rule 5 draft protection this offseason. I don’t think there is too much to write home about with Halpin, but you can never get enough quality defenders in CF.

Honorable Mentions

Ryan Cesarini OF
Bennet Thompson C
Jake Fox 2B
Heins Brito SS

That is a wrap for my preseason 2024 Guardians’ hitter prospects list! Feel free to share any thoughts, call me names, tell me I don’t know ball, or anything else you want to add to this discussion.

I look forward to releasing my top 20 pitching prospects in the near future!