And what should happen next
Guardians fans are waking up wondering why the team has traded another starter from their ALCS finalist roster, this time their cleanup hitter.
The Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed starting pitcher Slade Cecconi and a draft pick in MLB’s compensation B round in 2025 (this will be a good prospect, in other words). They then turned around and signed Carlos Santana for his third tour with Cleveland.
First, let’s talk about Josh Naylor. I want to show you two pictures of Naylor, one from April 2024 and one from October 2024.
Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images
Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/MLB Photos via Getty Images
It is obvious that Naylor’s conditioning broke down in 2024. I want to speak about this with compassion – we don’t know why Naylor experienced these physical changes and it may have come from circumstances beyond his ability to control. But, it happened. And it seemed to affect his performance down the stretch: from Opening Day through June, Naylor had a 127 wRC+ (100 is league average). From July 1st through September, he had a 109 wRC+. He then followed that up with a 50 wRC+ in the playoffs. I think it’s safe to assume that that the Guardians had serious concerns about Naylor’s body holding up over a 162-game season… so serious that they believe the 39 year-old Santana has a better shot at doing it. Both players are stocky… but Santana is a bit of an iron man and has maintained a consistent physique.
The Guardians have four players now to fill the first base and DH positions on their roster: Kyle Manzardo, Carlos Santana, David Fry (who likely won’t play until June at the earliest), and Jhonkensy Noel (who right now should be getting most of the plate appearances in right field). Manzardo is projected for 119 wRC+, Santana for 109 wRC+, Fry for 112 wRC+, and Noel for 108 wRC+. Naylor was projected for 124 wRC+ with Progressive Field as his home ballpark. Most notably, Naylor has a 120 wRC+ for his career against right-handed pitching while Fry, Noel and Santana all hit lefties much better. So, this move only makes sense on an offensive side of things if the Guardians are projecting Naylor for a notable step-back, perhaps due to conditioning.
There are two sides to the game, of course, and Santana deservedly won a Gold Glove as a 38 year-old in 2024. Naylor had -6 Defensive Runs Saved and 1 Out Above Average as a first baseman. Santana had 8 DRS and 14 (!) OAA in 2024. This may help the team compensate for regression in defense at second base due to Andres Gimenez being traded.
Additionally, in former 33rd pick in the 2020 draft, Slade Cecconi, the Guardians have acquired an interesting pitcher who has potential to start games for them or be a good reliever, if they can help him reach his potential. Cecconi has pretty poor major league numbers with a 6.08 ERA, but his 4.85 Fielding Independent Pitching mark indicates he should be better. He has good command only walking 1.82 batters per 9, and by metrics measuring stuff his slider is about 20% above average and the changeup and his curveball are slightly above average. His four-seam fastball is getting absolutely crushed, as it was 10 runs below average in 2024. So, maybe there is something to tweak here… or maybe Cecconi is a guy who would thrive if he moved to the pen where his fastball there sits closer to 96 mph than the 94 mph it averages when he starts.
Importantly, Cecconi has an option so he can go to Columbus if needed to let the Cleveland pitching development group work their magic. I had thought the Diamondbacks were good at pitching development, but they’ve been towards the bottom 5-10 of MLB in ERA over the past three years. So, maybe there is some adjusting and tweaking the Guardians can do for Cecconi… I have tried to make it a rule to never question the Guardians’ front office when it comes to pitching acquisitions. I’ll try to do it in this case… with a little more effort than usual.
The draft pick is nice, of course, but I am interested in getting this team to the World Series in 2025, not in 2035 right now. Maybe the pick allows them to sign a pitcher like Nick Pivetta or Sean Manaea which would cost them a draft pick in that range, or a middle-of-the-order hitter like Jurickson Profar, Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez… but I’ll believe any of that when I see it. I would be fine accepting using the pick or other resources to acquire St. Louis’s Erick Fedde in a trade. The rotation has a lot of interesting arms but needs another veteran option to make me feel confident in what it can offer in 2025.
More significantly, I need to understand how the Guardians plan to replace Naylor’s production against right-handed pitching. The answer cannot simply be “Hope Will Brennan becomes the doubles monster he was in Columbus.” Whether it is giving Chase DeLauter a clear runway to make the Opening Day roster if he can be healthy, or adding a proven veteran bat who can play right-field and hit right-handers well, something needs to be done. At this point, that option is probably going to be found in a trade with Michael Conforto and Jesse Winker already signed in free agent deals. Can the Guardians land Jesus Sanchez from the clearly selling Marlins? Can they shake Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan or Alec Burleson free from the retooling Cardinals? Time will tell, but I do think they really need to make a move in this area. Relying on DeLauter to be healthy and immediately effective is a more exciting option than betting on Brennan, but neither plan should fill us with confidence.
One nice thing I’ll say – if Juan Brito truly gets a chance to win the second base job, his projected walk rate of almost 11% would almost triple what Andres Gimenez provided, and Carlos Santana’s career 14.6% walk rate almost doubles Josh Naylor’s career walk rate of 7.7%. This helps a Cleveland team who ranked 21st in the majors in walk-rate last year in some notable ways. It’s also helpful to know that David Fry SHOULD be back to hitting mid-summer so that if Santana finally hits an aging wall, there is some insurance in his role.
I feel like this trade is a huge bet on the Cleveland development team and on Stephen Vogt’s managing abilities to help keep a roster aligned and motivated after losing two starters in trades this offseason. It probably helps that Santana is known and loved by the Guardians’ clubhouse, especially Jose Ramirez. Fans certainly can dream of Santana getting redemption in a World Series run… but we are going to need some more movement from the Guardians’ front office to have more than a dreamer’s hope of that storybook ending coming to pass.